「新しいインフラ」は鉄鋼需要の増加を直接推進することができますか？

There is more consensus now that the government should focus on "new infrastructure" after the epidemic. "New infrastructure" is becoming the new focus of domestic economic recovery. "New infrastructure" includes seven major areas including UHV, new energy vehicle charging piles, 5G base station construction, big data centers, artificial intelligence, industrial Internet, intercity high-speed railway and intercity rail transit. The role of "new infrastructure" in boosting the domestic economy is self-evident. In the future, can the steel industry benefit from this investment hot spot?

COVID-19流行の状況は「新しいインフラ」投資の動機を倍増させる

The reason why the “new infrastructure” is called “new” is relative to the traditional infrastructure such as the “iron public plane”, which mainly serves the infrastructure of the science and technology side. The comparable historical project of the “new infrastructure” is the “national” proposed by US President Clinton in 1993. "Information Superhighway", large-scale infrastructure construction in the field of information, the plan has had a very wide impact worldwide, and created the future glory of the US information economy. In the era of industrial economy, infrastructure construction is reflected in the promotion of physical resources The flow and integration of the supply chain; in the era of the digital economy, mobile communication, big data, artificial intelligence and other network equipment facilities and data center facilities have become necessary and universal infrastructure.

The "new infrastructure" proposed this time has a broader connotation and wider service targets. For example, 5G is for mobile communications, UHV is for electricity, intercity high-speed rail and intercity rail transit are transportation, big data centers are for Internet and digital services, and artificial intelligence and industrial Internet are a rich and diverse field. This may cause a problem that everything is loaded into it, but this is also related to the word "new" because new things are always developing.

In 2019, the relevant agencies sorted out the domestic PPP project database, with a total investment of 17.6 trillion yuan, and infrastructure construction is still the big head, 7.1 trillion yuan, accounting for 41%; real estate ranks second, 3.4 trillion yuan, accounting for 20%; "New infrastructure" is about 100 billion yuan, accounting for about 0.5%, and the total amount is not large. According to the statistics of the 21st Century Business Herald, as of March 5th, the list of future investment plans issued by 24 provinces and municipalities was summarized, involving 22,000 projects, with a total scale of 47.6 trillion yuan, and planned investment of 8 trillion yuan in 2020. The proportion of "new infrastructure" is already around 10%.

During this epidemic, the digital economy has demonstrated strong vitality, and many digital formats such as cloud life, cloud office, and cloud economy have been vigorously bursting out, adding new impetus to the "new infrastructure" construction. After the epidemic, the consideration of economic stimulus, "new infrastructure" will get more attention and greater investment, and pin more expectations of stimulating economic growth.

XNUMXつの地域の鉄鋼消費原単位

The setting of the seven major areas of "new infrastructure" is based on the digital economy and the smart economy. The steel industry will benefit from the new kinetic energy and new potential provided by the "new infrastructure" to a higher level, and will also be "Infrastructure" provides the necessary basic materials.

鉄鋼材料の5つのフィールドと鉄鋼強度によって、高から低に分類され、都市間高速鉄道および都市間鉄道輸送、UHV、新エネルギー車両充電パイル、XNUMXG基地局、ビッグデータセンター、産業用インターネット、人工知能です。

According to the National Railway's "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan", the high-speed railway business mileage plan for 2020 will be 30,000 kilometers. In 2019, the current operating mileage of high-speed rail has reached 35,000 kilometers, and the goal has been exceeded ahead of schedule." In 2020, the national railway will invest 800 billion yuan and put into operation new lines of 4,000 kilometers, of which high-speed rail will be 2,000 kilometers. The focus will be on shortcomings, encrypted networks, and The investment intensity will be basically the same in 2019. Against the background of the basic formation of the national backbone network, in 2019, the total mileage of urban tracks in the country will reach 6,730 kilometers, an increase of 969 kilometers, and the investment intensity will be around 700 billion. Driven by the enhanced version of the "new infrastructure" policy , Regional connectivity under the backbone network, encryption projects, namely intercity high-speed railways and intercity rail transit, will become the focus of future construction. The more economically developed areas, the more vigorous demand, the follow-up regional focus is the Yangtze River Delta, Zhuhai According to the "Shanghai 2035" plan, Changjiang, Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and Changjiang will form a "three 1000 km" rail transportation network of urban lines, intercity lines, and local lines. The investment of 100 million US dollars in railways requires at least 0.333 steel consumption There is an investment of 1 trillion US dollars to drive the demand for 3333 tons of steel, and the longer consumption is building materials and rail materials.

UHV。 このフィールドは主にState Gridによって駆動されます。 2020年に7つのUHVが承認されることは明らかです。 この鋼の引っ張りは、主に電磁鋼に反映されます。 2019年の電気鋼の消費量は979トンで、数倍の6.6％増加しています。 UHVによるグリッド投資の増加に続いて、電磁鋼の需要は増加すると予想されます。

Charging pile of new energy vehicles. According to the "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan", the degradation ratio is 1:1, and there will be approximately 7 million charging piles in China by 2025. The charging pile mainly includes the equipment host, cables, columns and other auxiliary materials. A 7KW charging pile costs about 20,000, and 120KW requires about 150,000. The amount of steel for small charging piles is reduced. Large ones will involve some steel for brackets. Calculated for an average of 0.5 tons each, 7 million charging piles require about 350 tons of steel.

5G base station. According to the prediction of China Information Communication Institute, my country's investment in 5G network construction is expected to reach 1.2 trillion yuan by 2025; the investment in 5G equipment in 2020 will be 90.2 billion, of which 45.1 billion will be invested in main equipment, and other auxiliary equipment such as communications tower masts will be included. 5G infrastructure is divided into two types of macro base stations and micro base stations. The outdoor large tower is a macro base station and the focus of current large-scale construction. The construction of the macro base station is composed of main equipment, power supporting equipment facilities, civil construction, etc. The steel involved is the machine room, cabinets, cabinets, communication tower masts, etc. The steel volume of the communication tower mast accounts for the bulk, and the weight of the ordinary three-tube tower is about 8.5 Tons, but most macro base stations and micro base stations will rely on existing 2/3/4G and other communication facilities. Micro base stations are mainly deployed in densely populated areas, with little steel consumption. Therefore, the overall consumption of steel driven by 5G base stations will not be too large. Roughly according to the base station investment of 5%, steel is needed, and the trillion-dollar investment on 5G drives steel consumption to increase by about 50 billion yuan.

ビッグデータセンター、人工知能、産業用インターネット。 ハードウェアへの投資は主にコンピュータールーム、サーバーなどにあります。他のXNUMXつの領域と比較すると、直接的な鉄鋼の消費は少なくなります。

Seeing "New Infrastructure" Steel Consumption from Guangdong Samples

1,230つの主要エリアで使用される鋼の量はさまざまですが、鉄道輸送は新しいインフラストラクチャへの投資と建設の大部分を占めているため、鋼の消費を増やすことは非常に明白です。 広東省が発表した投資プロジェクトのリストによると、2020年には5.9の主要な建設プロジェクトがあり、総投資額は868兆元、推定予備投資額は3.4億元で、推定総投資額は1兆元です。 新しいインフラストラクチャは正確に10兆元で、9.3兆元の投資計画全体のXNUMX％を占めています。

全体として、都市間鉄道輸送と都市鉄道輸送の総投資は906.9億元で、90％を占めています。 90％の投資規模はまさに鋼の密度が高い地域であり、39のプロジェクトの数は他の地域のそれよりはるかに多いです。 和。 国家開発改革委員会の情報によると、都市間および都市鉄道輸送プロジェクトの承認はすでに数兆に達しています。 この領域は、規模と量の面で新しいインフラストラクチャへの投資の焦点になることが期待されます。

Therefore, the "new infrastructure" is an opportunity for the steel industry to promote its own quality and efficiency, and it will also form a new growth point for steel demand.