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La «nouvelle infrastructure» peut-elle directement alimenter l'augmentation de la demande d'acier?

Heure: 2020-03-13 Visites: 2020-03-13

There is more consensus now that the government should focus on "new infrastructure" after the epidemic. "New infrastructure" is becoming the new focus of domestic economic recovery. "New infrastructure" includes seven major areas including UHV, new energy vehicle charging piles, 5G base station construction, big data centers, artificial intelligence, industrial Internet, intercity high-speed railway and intercity rail transit. The role of "new infrastructure" in boosting the domestic economy is self-evident. In the future, can the steel industry benefit from this investment hot spot?

COVID-19 Epidemic situation multiplies “new infrastructure” investment motivation

The reason why the “new infrastructure” is called “new” is relative to the traditional infrastructure such as the “iron public plane”, which mainly serves the infrastructure of the science and technology side. The comparable historical project of the “new infrastructure” is the “national” proposed by US President Clinton in 1993. "Information Superhighway", large-scale infrastructure construction in the field of information, the plan has had a very wide impact worldwide, and created the future glory of the US information economy. In the era of industrial economy, infrastructure construction is reflected in the promotion of physical resources The flow and integration of the supply chain; in the era of the digital economy, mobile communication, big data, artificial intelligence and other network equipment facilities and data center facilities have become necessary and universal infrastructure.

The "new infrastructure" proposed this time has a broader connotation and wider service targets. For example, 5G is for mobile communications, UHV is for electricity, intercity high-speed rail and intercity rail transit are transportation, big data centers are for Internet and digital services, and artificial intelligence and industrial Internet are a rich and diverse field. This may cause a problem that everything is loaded into it, but this is also related to the word "new" because new things are always developing.

In 2019, the relevant agencies sorted out the domestic PPP project database, with a total investment of 17.6 trillion yuan, and infrastructure construction is still the big head, 7.1 trillion yuan, accounting for 41%; real estate ranks second, 3.4 trillion yuan, accounting for 20%; "New infrastructure" is about 100 billion yuan, accounting for about 0.5%, and the total amount is not large. According to the statistics of the 21st Century Business Herald, as of March 5th, the list of future investment plans issued by 24 provinces and municipalities was summarized, involving 22,000 projects, with a total scale of 47.6 trillion yuan, and planned investment of 8 trillion yuan in 2020. The proportion of "new infrastructure" is already around 10%.

During this epidemic, the digital economy has demonstrated strong vitality, and many digital formats such as cloud life, cloud office, and cloud economy have been vigorously bursting out, adding new impetus to the "new infrastructure" construction. After the epidemic, the consideration of economic stimulus, "new infrastructure" will get more attention and greater investment, and pin more expectations of stimulating economic growth.

Steel consumption intensity in seven areas

The setting of the seven major areas of "new infrastructure" is based on the digital economy and the smart economy. The steel industry will benefit from the new kinetic energy and new potential provided by the "new infrastructure" to a higher level, and will also be "Infrastructure" provides the necessary basic materials.

Sorted by seven fields and steel strength for steel materials, from high to low, they are intercity high-speed railway and intercity rail transit, UHV, new energy vehicle charging pile, 5G base station, big data center, industrial Internet, artificial intelligence .

According to the National Railway's "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan", the high-speed railway business mileage plan for 2020 will be 30,000 kilometers. In 2019, the current operating mileage of high-speed rail has reached 35,000 kilometers, and the goal has been exceeded ahead of schedule." In 2020, the national railway will invest 800 billion yuan and put into operation new lines of 4,000 kilometers, of which high-speed rail will be 2,000 kilometers. The focus will be on shortcomings, encrypted networks, and The investment intensity will be basically the same in 2019. Against the background of the basic formation of the national backbone network, in 2019, the total mileage of urban tracks in the country will reach 6,730 kilometers, an increase of 969 kilometers, and the investment intensity will be around 700 billion. Driven by the enhanced version of the "new infrastructure" policy , Regional connectivity under the backbone network, encryption projects, namely intercity high-speed railways and intercity rail transit, will become the focus of future construction. The more economically developed areas, the more vigorous demand, the follow-up regional focus is the Yangtze River Delta, Zhuhai According to the "Shanghai 2035" plan, Changjiang, Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and Changjiang will form a "three 1000 km" rail transportation network of urban lines, intercity lines, and local lines. The investment of 100 million US dollars in railways requires at least 0.333 steel consumption There is an investment of 1 trillion US dollars to drive the demand for 3333 tons of steel, and the longer consumption is building materials and rail materials.

UHV. This field is mainly driven by the State Grid. It is now clear that in 2020, 7 UHVs will be approved. This pulling of steel is mainly reflected in electrical steel. In 2019, the consumption of electrical steel is 979 tons, which has increased by 6.6% several times. Subsequent to the increase in grid investment brought by UHV, the demand for electrical steel is expected to increase.

Charging pile of new energy vehicles. According to the "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan", the degradation ratio is 1:1, and there will be approximately 7 million charging piles in China by 2025. The charging pile mainly includes the equipment host, cables, columns and other auxiliary materials. A 7KW charging pile costs about 20,000, and 120KW requires about 150,000. The amount of steel for small charging piles is reduced. Large ones will involve some steel for brackets. Calculated for an average of 0.5 tons each, 7 million charging piles require about 350 tons of steel.

5G base station. According to the prediction of China Information Communication Institute, my country's investment in 5G network construction is expected to reach 1.2 trillion yuan by 2025; the investment in 5G equipment in 2020 will be 90.2 billion, of which 45.1 billion will be invested in main equipment, and other auxiliary equipment such as communications tower masts will be included. 5G infrastructure is divided into two types of macro base stations and micro base stations. The outdoor large tower is a macro base station and the focus of current large-scale construction. The construction of the macro base station is composed of main equipment, power supporting equipment facilities, civil construction, etc. The steel involved is the machine room, cabinets, cabinets, communication tower masts, etc. The steel volume of the communication tower mast accounts for the bulk, and the weight of the ordinary three-tube tower is about 8.5 Tons, but most macro base stations and micro base stations will rely on existing 2/3/4G and other communication facilities. Micro base stations are mainly deployed in densely populated areas, with little steel consumption. Therefore, the overall consumption of steel driven by 5G base stations will not be too large. Roughly according to the base station investment of 5%, steel is needed, and the trillion-dollar investment on 5G drives steel consumption to increase by about 50 billion yuan.

Big data center, artificial intelligence, industrial Internet. The hardware investment is mainly in computer rooms, servers, etc., compared with the other four areas, direct steel consumption is less.

Seeing "New Infrastructure" Steel Consumption from Guangdong Samples

Although the amount of steel used in the seven major areas varies, because rail transit accounts for a large proportion of new infrastructure investment and construction, it will be very obvious to boost steel consumption. According to the list of investment projects published by Guangdong Province, there are 1,230 key construction projects in 2020, with a total investment of 5.9 trillion yuan, and 868 preliminary projects, with an estimated total investment of 3.4 trillion yuan. The new infrastructure is exactly 1 trillion yuan, accounting for 10% of the overall investment plan of 9.3 trillion yuan.

Overall, the total investment of intercity rail transit and urban rail transit is 906.9 billion yuan, accounting for 90%. The investment scale of 90% is precisely the area with high steel density, and the number of 39 projects is far more than that of other areas. sum. According to information from the National Development and Reform Commission, the approval of intercity and urban rail transit projects has already reached trillions. It is expected that this area will become the focus of investment in new infrastructure in terms of scale and quantity.

Therefore, the "new infrastructure" is an opportunity for the steel industry to promote its own quality and efficiency, and it will also form a new growth point for steel demand.